Radon in earthquake prediction

Radon in earthquake prediction

Numerous scientific papers on the use of radon levels to predict earthquakes can be found on Google.

Techniques described use either radon in soil gas or radon dissolved in groundwater.

Two examples are given below.
  • We measure: radon - radium - thoron - radon daughters - alpha radiation.
  • The Lucas cell is recognized as the most sensitive and reliable method for these elements.
  • Our instruments are used around the world in exploration for uranium, oil & gas, groundwater and hydrothermal, and in environmental protection, health physics, earthquake prediction, and evaluation of hydrocarbon and NAPL contamination.
  • In the radon business since 1968, our latest major instrument update was 2015.
  • Modern, low-power, field-rugged electronics. Some earlier versions still working after 35 years.
  • Continuous real-time monitoring and data recording.
  • Winter and summer, from the Sahara Desert to the Canadian Shield, our instruments have faced up to severe field conditions.
  • Intrinsically safe functions.
  • Sensitive to geochemical trace levels necessary for radon in lake water and for radon-thoron isotope ratios.
  • Can work in a tent without electricity or be carried from point to point in the field.
  • 50 readings per day. Results available immediately.
  • Rechargeable battery pack good for a long day in the field and recharges in a few hours.
  • Can be operated by junior personnel if carefully supervised.
  • Same instruments used for radon and radium in soil, sediment, plant parts, rocks, water, soil gas, air, and snow, and for radon daughters in air.
  • EPA compliant.
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Robert H. Morse, Ph.D., P.Eng.
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B. Zmazek, M. Ziv?i?, L. Todorovski, S. Dzeroski, J. Vaupoti? and I. Kobal, 2005
Radon in soil gas: How to identify anomalies caused by earthquakes
Applied Geochemistry, Volume 20, Issue 6, pp 1106-1119
Evaluation of the use of anomalous levels of radon in soil gas in predicting earthquakes.
Abstract: Anomalies have been observed in Rn content in soil gas from 3 boreholes at the Orlica fault in the Krsko basin, Slovenia. To distinguish the anomalies caused by environmental parameters (air and soil temperature, barometric pressure, rainfall) from those resulting solely from seismic activity, the following approaches have been used: (i) deviation of Rn concentration from the seasonal average, (ii) correlation between time gradients of Rn concentration and barometric pressure, and (iii) regression trees within a machine learning program. Approach (i) is much less successful in predicting anomalies caused by seismic events than approaches (ii) and (iii) if +/-2s criterion is used and is equally successful if =/-1s is used. Approaches (ii) and (iii) did not fail to observe an anomaly preceding an earthquake, but show false seismic anomalies, the number of which is much lower with (iii) than with (ii). Model trees are shown to outperform other approaches. A model has been built which, in the seismically non-active periods when Rn is presumably influenced only by environmental parameters, predicts the concentration with a correlation of 0.8. This correlation is reduced significantly in the seismically active periods.
Fujita Research: Earthquake Prediction Precursors useful in earthquake prediction include increases in concentrations of Radon in solution in water in deep wells.

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